Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
Oscar for Best Director on Kalshi
If Nathan Fielder has won Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the Oscars? · Christopher Nolan | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 103,610 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the Oscars? · Denis Villeneuve | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 42,115 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu win Best Director at the Oscars? · Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33,119 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nathan Fielder win Best Director at the Oscars? · Nathan Fielder | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 31,649 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Martin McDonagh win Best Director at the Oscars? · Martin McDonagh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 27,352 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi win Best Director at the Oscars? · Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 25,960 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Wilde win Best Director at the Oscars? · Olivia Wilde | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 22,447 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Fincher win Best Director at the Oscars? · David Fincher | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,090 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Phil Lord & Christopher Miller win Best Director at the Oscars? · Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,623 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jesse Eisenberg win Best Director at the Oscars? · Jesse Eisenberg | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,736 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Director at the Oscars? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,406 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Danny Boyle win Best Director at the Oscars? · Danny Boyle | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,059 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steven Spielberg win Best Director at the Oscars? · Steven Spielberg | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,808 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Leigh win Best Director at the Oscars? · Mike Leigh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,277 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Na Hong-jin win Best Director at the Oscars? · Na Hong-jin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 988 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joel Coen win Best Director at the Oscars? · Joel Coen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 815 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Affleck win Best Director at the Oscars? · Ben Affleck | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 479 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Haigh win Best Director at the Oscars? · Andrew Haigh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 315 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Janus Metz Pedersen win Best Director at the Oscars? · Janus Metz Pedersen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 140 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.