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Oracle KPI on Kalshi
If Oracle Corporation reports above 160000 total full-time employees in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 160000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 160000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,422 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 130000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 130000 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,233 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 140000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 140000 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,134 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 155000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 155000 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,069 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 135000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 135000 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,022 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 125000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 125000 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 466 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 150000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 150000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 30 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oracle Corporation report above 145000 total full-time employees in 2027? · Above 145000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 25 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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