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Oregon Board of Forestry Lands timber harvest volume on Kalshi
If the Oregon Department of Forestry reports that timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in fiscal year 2027 is above 160 million board feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
28%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
55% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.52 | 29.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 160 million board feet? · Above 160 million board feet | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 20,697 | Nov 30, 14:59 UTC |
| Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 200 million board feet? · Above 200 million board feet | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 20,390 | Nov 30, 14:59 UTC |
| Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 220 million board feet? · Above 220 million board feet | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 18,657 | Nov 30, 14:59 UTC |
| Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 180 million board feet? · Above 180 million board feet | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 10,048 | Nov 30, 14:59 UTC |
| Will timber volume harvested from Board of Forestry Lands in 2027 be above 240 million board feet? · Above 240 million board feet | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,801 | Nov 30, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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