What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Open-weight AI market share (OpenRouter) on Kalshi

If Open-weight models scores above 78.4% on OpenRouter Open / Closed weekly token-share chart week of Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: OpenRouter - Open / Closed.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 60%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	5,570	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 78%	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	2,226	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 72%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	1,168	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 86%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	793	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 88%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	762	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 76%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	762	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 70%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	700	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 84%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	541	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 74%	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	529	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 71.8%	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	84	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 80%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	17	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 82%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	8	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 90%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	6	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)? · Above 92%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	4	Nov 30, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 78.4%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 76.8%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 76.1%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 75.6%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 75.1%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 74.6%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 74.1%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Open source token share Nov 9–15 (OpenRouter)? · Above 73.3%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.