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OpenAI Market Share on Kalshi
If OpenAI scores above 20.8% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: OpenRouter - AI Market Share.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 17.4% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,060 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 20.8% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,520 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 18.2% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,000 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 19.6% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 511 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 19.4% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 502 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 20.0% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 500 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 19.1% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 22 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 18.9% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| OpenAI market share this week? · Above 18.6% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.