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Okta annual kpi on Kalshi
If Okta, Inc. reports Above 5500 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5375 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5375 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 400 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5450 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5450 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 200 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5500 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5500 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5475 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5475 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5425 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5425 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5400 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5400 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5350 customers with acv over $100k in fiscal 2027? · Above 5350 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 01, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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