What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 66¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 68% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 66%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Ohio Senate special election winner sworn in on Kalshi

If the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 after Issuance and before Dec 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, Axios, BBC, The Washington Post, CNN, The Guardian, ABC News Australia, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

66%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

68% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
66¢ (now)	1.6¢	$1.19	67.6%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 before Dec 16, 2026? · Yes	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	68%	4,425	Dec 16, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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