Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Owners' equivalent rent for [month] on Kalshi
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent of residences, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, for October 2026 is above 446.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.7? · Above 449.7 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,152 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.9? · Above 448.9 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,152 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.6? · Above 449.6 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,077 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.7? · Above 448.7 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,016 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 450.0? · Above 450.0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 984 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.5? · Above 448.5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 772 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.8? · Above 448.8 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 605 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 448.6? · Above 448.6 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 533 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.5? · Above 449.5 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 236 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.0? · Above 447.0 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 211 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.9? · Above 446.9 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 201 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.9? · Above 449.9 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 200 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.8? · Above 449.8 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 200 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.0? · Above 446.0 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 122 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.1? · Above 446.1 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 122 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.2? · Above 446.2 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 122 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.5? · Above 446.5 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 110 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.2? · Above 449.2 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 101 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.4? · Above 449.4 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.3? · Above 449.3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.1? · Above 449.1 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 449.0? · Above 449.0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.8? · Above 446.8 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 24 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.1? · Above 447.1 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 20 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.7? · Above 446.7 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.3? · Above 446.3 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.4? · Above 446.4 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 446.6? · Above 446.6 | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.2? · Above 447.2 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.3? · Above 447.3 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.4? · Above 447.4 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
| Will CPI-U for Owners' equivalent rent for October 2026 be above 447.5? · Above 447.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 10, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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