Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next New Zealand Prime Minister on Kalshi
If Winston Peters becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Governor-General of New Zealand, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Christopher Luxon | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 13,507 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Hipkins become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Chris Hipkins | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,185 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Seymour become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · David Seymour | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,762 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chlöe Swarbrick become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Chlöe Swarbrick | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,353 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Bishop become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Chris Bishop | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,072 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicola Willis become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Nicola Willis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,021 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Winston Peters become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Winston Peters | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,010 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erica Stanford become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Erica Stanford | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 931 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Simeon Brown become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Simeon Brown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rawiri Waititi become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Rawiri Waititi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Qiulae Wong become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Qiulae Wong | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Mitchell become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Mark Mitchell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marama Davidson become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Marama Davidson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Debbie Ngarewa-Packer become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election? · Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 870 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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