What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 7¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.24.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 8% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 7%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will New York tax QSBS gains? on Kalshi

If legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 has become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: geography’s official government websites, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, United States Congress, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, Semafor, Politico, relevant governmental agency in geography, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, major newspapers in geography.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

15% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027? · Yes	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	15%	3,160	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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