What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.87.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 19% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

NYC subway weekday ridership on Kalshi

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.5 million in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

36% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4.5 million in November 2026? · Above 4.5 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4.4 million in November 2026? · Above 4.4 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4.3 million in November 2026? · Above 4.3 million	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4.2 million in November 2026? · Above 4.2 million	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4.1 million in November 2026? · Above 4.1 million	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership be above 4 million in November 2026? · Above 4 million	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.