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NYC statistics on Kalshi
If the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals is above 190 million for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 54 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 190000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026? · Above 190 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 11,154 | Jan 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 10000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 10,000 | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 800 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 180000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026? · Above 180 million | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 552 | Jan 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 170000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026? · Above 170 million | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 472 | Jan 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.3 mph for December 2026? · At least 8.3 mph | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 410 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 86000 for December 2026? · Above 86,000 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 410 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 8000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 8,000 | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 400 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 175000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026? · Above 175 million | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 231 | Jan 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC Department of Homeless Services’ average length of stay for single adults in shelter in the full-fiscal Mayor’s Management Report be above 350 days for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027)? · Above 350 days | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 226 | Oct 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35000 as of December 31, 2026? · Above 35,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 222 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 34250 as of December 31, 2026? · Above 34,250 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 205 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.2 mph for December 2026? · At least 8.2 mph | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 173 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the New York City Department of City Planning Housing Database’s citywide count of proposed Class A housing units in New Building jobs, measured by the date of first partial construction permit issuance be above 26000 in 2026? · Above 26,000 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 25 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 92000 for December 2026? · Above 92,000 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 20 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 90000 for December 2026? · Above 90,000 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 10 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 88000 for December 2026? · Above 88,000 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 10 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 16000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 16,000 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 4 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the New York City Department of City Planning Housing Database’s citywide count of proposed Class A housing units in New Building jobs, measured by the date of first partial construction permit issuance be above 41000 in 2026? · Above 41,000 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the New York City Department of City Planning Housing Database’s citywide count of proposed Class A housing units in New Building jobs, measured by the date of first partial construction permit issuance be above 23000 in 2026? · Above 23,000 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the NYC Department of Homeless Services’ average length of stay for single adults in shelter in the full-fiscal Mayor’s Management Report be above 375 days for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027)? · Above 375 days | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Oct 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the sum of the MTA’s “CRZ Entries” measure across all detection groups, vehicle classes, and 10-minute intervals be above 185000000 for Toll Dates from January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026? · Above 185 million | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 08, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.5 mph for December 2026? · At least 8.5 mph | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.4 mph for December 2026? · At least 8.4 mph | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8.1 mph for December 2026? · At least 8.1 mph | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service be at least 8 mph for December 2026? · At least 8 mph | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Feb 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 5 before Jan 1, 2029? · At least 5 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 4 before Jan 1, 2029? · At least 4 | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 3 before Jan 1, 2029? · At least 3 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 2 before Jan 1, 2029? · At least 2 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cumulative number of N.Y.C. Groceries stores that have opened for regular retail sales to the general public be at least 1 before Jan 1, 2029? · At least 1 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 6000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 6,000 | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 4000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 4,000 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 14000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 14,000 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the citywide number of 2-K seats New York City makes available for placement, counting each seat once across all program settings and schedules be above 12000 upon completion of the initial 2-K offer release for the 2027–28 school year? · Above 12,000 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 98000 for December 2026? · Above 98,000 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 96000 for December 2026? · Above 96,000 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 94000 for December 2026? · Above 94,000 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the cover-page value New York City reports as “Average daily overnight census in all city-administered facilities for the reporting month” be above 100000 for December 2026? · Above 100,000 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Mar 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35750 as of December 31, 2026? · Above 35,750 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the actual full-time headcount reported by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget for the New York City Police Department in the “Uniform” employee category be above 35500 as of December 31, 2026? · Above 35,500 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 54 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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