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How many affordable homes will NYC finance in FY2027? on Kalshi
If HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report is above 55,000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 15000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 15,000 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 33 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 45000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 45,000 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 26 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 30000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 30,000 | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 4 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 55000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 55,000 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 50000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 50,000 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 40000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 40,000 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 35000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 35,000 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 25000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 25,000 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
| Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 20000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027? · Above 20,000 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Sep 17, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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