What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Neptune insurance quarter kpi on Kalshi

If Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reports Above 391000 policies in force in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 382000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 382000	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	197	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 367000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 367000	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	176	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 361000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 361000	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	104	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 364000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 364000	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	41	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 370000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 370000	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	20	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 391000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 391000	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 388000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 388000	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 385000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 385000	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 379000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 379000	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 376000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 376000	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC
Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 373000 policies in force in Q1 2027? · Above 373000	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	0	Aug 19, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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