What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 45¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 45%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will an Atlantic Shores offshore wind lease be terminated? on Kalshi

If the U.S. Department of the Interior announces the relinquishment, cancellation, or other termination of at least one federal offshore wind lease held by Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind or one of its leaseholding subsidiaries before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

45%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
45¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.93	46.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. Department of the Interior announce the relinquishment, cancellation, or other termination of at least one federal offshore wind lease held by Atlantic Shores Offshore Wind or one of its leaseholding subsidiaries before Jul 1, 2027? · Yes	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	91%	41	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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