Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NHL Spread on Kalshi
If New York I wins by over 4.5 goals in the New York I vs San Jose NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 104 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York I wins by over 1.5 goals · New York I wins by over 1.5 goals | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 46,642 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 34,794 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 27,987 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals · San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 8,861 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Vancouver wins by over 1.5 goals · Vancouver wins by over 1.5 goals | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,734 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| New York I wins by over 2.5 goals · New York I wins by over 2.5 goals | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 4,369 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals · San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,420 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals · New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 864 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals · Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 722 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 3.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 3.5 goals | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 689 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Nashville wins by over 2.5 goals · Nashville wins by over 2.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 460 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals · Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 393 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by over 4.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 4.5 goals | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 150 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals · Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 144 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Florida wins by over 1.5 goals · Florida wins by over 1.5 goals | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 125 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals · Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 102 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals · Vegas wins by over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 102 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Colorado wins by over 2.5 goals · Colorado wins by over 2.5 goals | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 69 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals · Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 60 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| New York I wins by over 4.5 goals · New York I wins by over 4.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 53 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals · Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 46 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| New York I wins by over 3.5 goals · New York I wins by over 3.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 41 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals · Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 34 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals · St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 33 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Vancouver wins by over 2.5 goals · Vancouver wins by over 2.5 goals | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 2.5 goals · Washington wins by over 2.5 goals | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 22 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals · Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 18 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| New York R wins by over 1.5 goals · New York R wins by over 1.5 goals | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 12 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Boston wins by over 1.5 goals · Boston wins by over 1.5 goals | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 11 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 2.5 goals · Minnesota wins by over 2.5 goals | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 9 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Columbus wins by over 1.5 goals · Columbus wins by over 1.5 goals | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 5 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Carolina wins by over 1.5 goals · Carolina wins by over 1.5 goals | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 3 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by over 1.5 goals · Utah wins by over 1.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins by over 2.5 goals · Utah wins by over 2.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by over 1.5 goals · Utah wins by over 1.5 goals | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins by over 2.5 goals · St. Louis wins by over 2.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals · St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins by over 2.5 goals · Chicago wins by over 2.5 goals | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins by over 1.5 goals · Chicago wins by over 1.5 goals | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 2.5 goals · Buffalo wins by over 2.5 goals | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 104 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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