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Player to score X Goals in Season on Kalshi
If Brady Tkachuk scores at least 40 goals during the 2026-27 NHL regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 87 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Ivan Demidov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33,105 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Kirill Kaprizov: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Kirill Kaprizov | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 11,582 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Nathan MacKinnon: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Nathan MacKinnon | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 8,579 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Connor Bedard: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Connor Bedard | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 5,767 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Cutter Gauthier: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Cutter Gauthier | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 5,742 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Macklin Celebrini: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Macklin Celebrini | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,695 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Dylan Guenther: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Dylan Guenther | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,861 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Auston Matthews: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Auston Matthews | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,820 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Adrian Kempe: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Adrian Kempe | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,820 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Wyatt Johnston: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Wyatt Johnston | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 3,788 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Kyle Connor: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Kyle Connor | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 3,673 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Dylan Larkin: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Dylan Larkin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,968 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Jake Guentzel: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Jake Guentzel | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,889 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Mika Zibanejad: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Mika Zibanejad | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,858 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Leon Draisaitl: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Leon Draisaitl | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,835 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Tim Stutzle: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Tim Stutzle | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,714 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Alex Tuch: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Alex Tuch | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,673 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Leo Carlsson: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Leo Carlsson | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,583 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Mark Scheifele: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Mark Scheifele | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,448 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Filip Forsberg: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Filip Forsberg | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,412 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Steven Stamkos: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Steven Stamkos | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,377 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Nikita Kucherov: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Nikita Kucherov | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,236 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Morgan Geekie: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Morgan Geekie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 984 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Matt Boldy: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Matt Boldy | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 857 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| William Nylander: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · William Nylander | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 842 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Mikko Rantanen: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Mikko Rantanen | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 822 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Brandon Hagel: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Brandon Hagel | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 658 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Connor McDavid: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Connor McDavid | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 637 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Tage Thompson: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Tage Thompson | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 594 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Alex DeBrincat: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Alex DeBrincat | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 564 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Smith: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Will Smith | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 558 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Drake Batherson: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Drake Batherson | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 477 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Cutter Gauthier: 50+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Cutter Gauthier | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 400 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| David Pastrnak: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · David Pastrnak | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 381 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Jack Hughes: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Jack Hughes | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 376 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Pavel Dorofeyev: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Pavel Dorofeyev | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 364 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Jason Robertson: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Jason Robertson | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 362 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Nick Schmaltz: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Nick Schmaltz | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 347 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Sam Reinhart: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Sam Reinhart | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 313 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
| Cole Caufield: 40+ goals in 2026-27 NHL regular season? · Cole Caufield | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 286 | Apr 13, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 87 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.