What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NHL Hart Memorial Trophy on Kalshi

If Alexis Lafreniere wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: NHL, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Macklin Celebrini	7¢	7%	0.4¢	—	13%	12,085	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Connor McDavid	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	10,863	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Kirill Kaprizov	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	6,625	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Jack Hughes	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,874	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Nathan MacKinnon	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	5,021	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Quinn Hughes	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,302	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Connor Bedard	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,747	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Auston Matthews	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,632	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · David Pastrnak	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,541	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Jack Eichel	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,402	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Nikita Kucherov	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,256	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Sidney Crosby	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,917	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Connor Hellebuyck	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,670	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Nick Suzuki	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,477	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Matthew Tkachuk	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,365	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Igor Shesterkin	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,250	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Mitch Marner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,174	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Cole Caufield	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,130	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Cale Makar	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,012	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Leon Draisaitl	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,650	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Alex Ovechkin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,515	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Brady Tkachuk	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	689	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Artemi Panarin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	311	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · William Nylander	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	166	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Mikko Rantanen	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	114	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Hart Memorial Trophy: Alexis Lafreniere wins · Alexis Lafreniere	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Pavel Dorofeyev	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Kyle Connor	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy? · Andrei Vasilevskiy	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Jun 30, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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