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NHL 3rd Period Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 3rd period (excluding overtime) of the Nashville vs Anaheim NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 39 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins the 3rd period · Nashville | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Anaheim wins the 3rd period · Anaheim | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins the 3rd period · Vegas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins the 3rd period · Utah | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| San Jose wins the 3rd period · San Jose | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins the 3rd period · Pittsburgh | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 3rd period · Philadelphia | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Edmonton wins the 3rd period · Edmonton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins the 3rd period · Tampa Bay | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Buffalo wins the 3rd period · Buffalo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| New York R wins the 3rd period · New York R | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Calgary wins the 3rd period · Calgary | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins the 3rd period · Nashville | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins the 3rd period · Los Angeles | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins the 3rd period · St. Louis | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins the 3rd period · Detroit | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins the 3rd period · Winnipeg | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins the 3rd period · New Jersey | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Florida wins the 3rd period · Florida | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Columbus wins the 3rd period · Columbus | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Washington wins the 3rd period · Washington | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins the 3rd period · Ottawa | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins the 3rd period · Montreal | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins the 3rd period · Minnesota | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins the 3rd period · Toronto | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| 3rd period tie · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins the 3rd period · Colorado | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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