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NFL wins by week on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Football wins at least 5 games in the first 12 weeks of the Pro Football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 86 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New England win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · New England: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 5,569 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York G win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · New York G: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2,386 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami win at least 3 games in the first 12 weeks? · Miami: 3+ wins in first 12 weeks | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,082 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York G win at least 6 games in the first 12 weeks? · New York G: 6+ wins in first 12 weeks | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,052 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco win at least 10 games in the first 12 weeks? · San Francisco: 10+ wins in first 12 weeks | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,387 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas win at least 6 games in the first 12 weeks? · Las Vegas: 6+ wins in first 12 weeks | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,345 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Chicago: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,286 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Detroit: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,190 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks? · Kansas City: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,179 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks? · Buffalo: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,032 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Green Bay: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 993 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Cincinnati: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 945 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C win at least 1 game in the first 12 weeks? · Los Angeles C: 1+ wins in first 12 weeks | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 895 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta win at least 4 games in the first 12 weeks? · Atlanta: 4+ wins in first 12 weeks | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 884 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks? · Jacksonville: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 818 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Kansas City: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 816 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore win at least 6 games in the first 12 weeks? · Baltimore: 6+ wins in first 12 weeks | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 765 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks? · Chicago: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 738 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Minnesota: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 733 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Minnesota: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 706 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Kansas City: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 702 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo win at least 10 games in the first 12 weeks? · Buffalo: 10+ wins in first 12 weeks | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 676 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win at least 3 games in the first 12 weeks? · Tennessee: 3+ wins in first 12 weeks | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 650 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York J win at least 3 games in the first 12 weeks? · New York J: 3+ wins in first 12 weeks | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 604 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York J win at least 4 games in the first 12 weeks? · New York J: 4+ wins in first 12 weeks | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 600 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis win at least 4 games in the first 12 weeks? · Indianapolis: 4+ wins in first 12 weeks | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 600 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington win at least 5 games in the first 12 weeks? · Washington: 5+ wins in first 12 weeks | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 505 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Las Vegas: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 451 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Cincinnati: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 449 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win at least 5 games in the first 12 weeks? · Houston: 5+ wins in first 12 weeks | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 382 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Green Bay: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 327 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami win at least 2 games in the first 12 weeks? · Miami: 2+ wins in first 12 weeks | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 320 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denver win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · Denver: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 311 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C win at least 2 games in the first 12 weeks? · Los Angeles C: 2+ wins in first 12 weeks | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 286 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis win at least 5 games in the first 12 weeks? · Indianapolis: 5+ wins in first 12 weeks | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 268 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia win at least 3 games in the first 12 weeks? · Philadelphia: 3+ wins in first 12 weeks | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 242 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco win at least 8 games in the first 12 weeks? · San Francisco: 8+ wins in first 12 weeks | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 223 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore win at least 7 games in the first 12 weeks? · Baltimore: 7+ wins in first 12 weeks | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 204 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston win at least 6 games in the first 12 weeks? · Houston: 6+ wins in first 12 weeks | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 200 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco win at least 9 games in the first 12 weeks? · San Francisco: 9+ wins in first 12 weeks | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 173 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 86 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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