What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NFL Team First Win on Kalshi

If the Los Angeles C Pro Football team wins their first game of the season in Week 18 against Denver in the 2026 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 18 vs Denver · Week 18 vs Denver	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 17 vs Kansas City · Week 17 vs Kansas City	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 16 vs Miami · Week 16 vs Miami	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 15 vs San Francisco · Week 15 vs San Francisco	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 14 vs Las Vegas · Week 14 vs Las Vegas	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 13 vs Tampa Bay · Week 13 vs Tampa Bay	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 12 vs New England · Week 12 vs New England	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 11 vs New York J · Week 11 vs New York J	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Week 10 vs Baltimore · Week 10 vs Baltimore	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC
Los Angeles C First Win: Do not win a game this season · Do not win a game this season	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Jan 18, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.