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Pro Football First Touchdown on Kalshi
If WAS Commanders D/ST scores the first touchdown for Washington in Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the league governing the game.
Market says (typical open contract)
33%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS Commanders D/ST: 1st Washington Touchdown · WAS Commanders D/ST | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 1st Washington Touchdown · Van Jefferson | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs: 1st Washington Touchdown · Stefon Diggs | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: 1st Washington Touchdown · Rachaad White | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| No Touchdown: 1st Washington Touchdown · No Touchdown | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Luke McCaffrey: 1st Washington Touchdown · Luke McCaffrey | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 1st Washington Touchdown · Jayden Daniels | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| John Bates: 1st Washington Touchdown · John Bates | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 1st Washington Touchdown · Antonio Williams | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 1st Washington Touchdown · Austin Ekeler | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 1st New York G Touchdown · Theo Johnson | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| NY Giants D/ST: 1st New York G Touchdown · NY Giants D/ST | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| No Touchdown: 1st New York G Touchdown · No Touchdown | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers: 1st New York G Touchdown · Malik Nabers | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malachi Fields: 1st New York G Touchdown · Malachi Fields | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jalin Hyatt: 1st New York G Touchdown · Jalin Hyatt | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 1st New York G Touchdown · Isaiah Likely | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 1st New York G Touchdown · Devin Singletary | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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