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Pro Football Spread on Kalshi
If Los Angeles C wins by more than 7.5 points in the Los Angeles C vs Baltimore Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 379 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo wins by over 3.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 3.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,608,641 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 2.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,303,855 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 4.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 4.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,477,768 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,468,462 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 7.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 7.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,021,147 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 9.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 9.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 900,805 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 5.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 5.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 756,965 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 13.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 13.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 737,015 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 10.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 10.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 476,645 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 16.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 16.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 445,642 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 14.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 14.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 428,767 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 304,070 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 1.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 240,255 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 20.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 20.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 186,896 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 17.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 17.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 176,859 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 127,083 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 118,191 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 92,045 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 70,949 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 54,660 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 44,104 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42,619 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 37,576 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| San Francisco wins by over 4.5 points? · San Francisco wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 33,225 | Nov 17, 21:25 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,425 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jacksonville wins by over 9.5 points? · Jacksonville wins by over 9.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 21,017 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| New York G wins by over 1.5 points? · New York G wins by over 1.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 18,722 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Los Angeles R wins by over 8.5 points? · Los Angeles R wins by over 8.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 12,827 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points? · Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,807 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Kansas City wins by over 3.5 points? · Kansas City wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 10,723 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points? · Los Angeles R wins by over 7.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 9,909 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| Detroit wins by over 2.5 points? · Detroit wins by over 2.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 9,203 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points? · Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,749 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| New York G wins by over 2.5 points? · New York G wins by over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5,668 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points? · Buffalo wins by over 6.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 5,474 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
| San Francisco wins by over 5.5 points? · San Francisco wins by over 5.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,463 | Nov 17, 21:25 UTC |
| San Francisco wins by over 3.5 points? · San Francisco wins by over 3.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 4,768 | Nov 17, 21:25 UTC |
| Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 points? · Cincinnati wins by over 3.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,761 | Nov 18, 01:20 UTC |
| Seattle wins by over 3.5 points? · Seattle wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,803 | Nov 17, 21:05 UTC |
| Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points? · Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 3,768 | Nov 17, 18:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 379 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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