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Passing Yards on Kalshi
If Tyler Shough records 3000+ passing yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 120 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Caleb Williams record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Caleb Williams | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 49,092 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Herbert | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 13,490 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bo Nix record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Bo Nix | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 13,349 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Caleb Williams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,666 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Herbert | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 7,999 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jordan Love | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7,809 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Joe Burrow | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 6,668 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bo Nix record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Bo Nix | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,603 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Dak Prescott | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 6,563 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Geno Smith record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Geno Smith | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 6,504 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Matthew Stafford | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 6,432 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dak Prescott record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Dak Prescott | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 6,217 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Caleb Williams | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 6,109 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Geno Smith record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Geno Smith | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 5,845 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Tyler Shough | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 5,718 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Lamar Jackson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,408 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Patrick Mahomes | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 5,372 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Caleb Williams | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,050 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bo Nix record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Bo Nix | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 4,735 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Josh Allen | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 4,620 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jalen Hurts | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,535 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake Maye record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Drake Maye | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 4,052 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trevor Lawrence record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Trevor Lawrence | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 4,015 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Love record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jordan Love | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 3,918 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Penix Jr. record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Michael Penix Jr. | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 3,786 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baker Mayfield record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Baker Mayfield | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,421 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Joe Burrow | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3,353 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lamar Jackson record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Lamar Jackson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,207 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Daniels record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jayden Daniels | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 3,041 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Josh Allen | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 2,934 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyler Murray record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Kyler Murray | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,884 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough record 3500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Tyler Shough | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 2,882 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Purdy record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Purdy | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2,774 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Stafford record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Matthew Stafford | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 2,732 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Goff record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jared Goff | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,677 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jalen Hurts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,645 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxson Dart | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 2,579 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Hurts record 3000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jalen Hurts | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,517 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxson Dart record 4000+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxson Dart | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 2,499 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler Shough record 4500+ passing yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Tyler Shough | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2,454 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 120 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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