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AP Pro Football Offensive Player Of The Year on Kalshi
If Jaylen Warren wins the Pro Football AP Offensive Player of the Year in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 69 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 389,183 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bijan Robinson win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Bijan Robinson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 345,358 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Brock Bowers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 293,002 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Jahmyr Gibbs | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 279,577 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Olave win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Chris Olave | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 277,244 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Allen win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Josh Allen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 267,742 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CeeDee Lamb win the Offensive Player of the Year? · CeeDee Lamb | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 256,692 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Puka Nacua win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Puka Nacua | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 247,642 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Caleb Williams win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Caleb Williams | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 225,453 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Tetairoa McMillan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 218,126 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Ja'Marr Chase | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 210,276 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malik Nabers win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Malik Nabers | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 187,057 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Walker win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Kenneth Walker | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 174,881 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian McCaffrey win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Christian McCaffrey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 173,266 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick Henry win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Derrick Henry | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 164,772 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake London win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Drake London | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 155,685 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian Watson win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Christian Watson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 145,677 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaylen Warren win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Jaylen Warren | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 139,963 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Taylor win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Jonathan Taylor | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 131,107 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zay Flowers win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Zay Flowers | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 126,186 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tee Higgins win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Tee Higgins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 122,785 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amon-Ra St. Brown win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 89,025 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Justin Jefferson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 82,473 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Cook III win the Offensive Player of the Year? · James Cook III | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 81,037 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Mahomes win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Patrick Mahomes | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 78,287 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ashton Jeanty win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Ashton Jeanty | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 77,324 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Ladd McConkey | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 68,213 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saquon Barkley win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Saquon Barkley | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 61,314 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rashee Rice win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Rashee Rice | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 57,467 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Collins win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Nico Collins | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 56,252 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Brown win the Offensive Player of the Year? · A.J. Brown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 54,809 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Omarion Hampton win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Omarion Hampton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53,955 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DeVonta Smith win the Offensive Player of the Year? · DeVonta Smith | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52,772 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Brown win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Chase Brown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 48,237 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Burrow win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Joe Burrow | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 45,278 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Herbert win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Justin Herbert | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,338 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will C.J. Stroud win the Offensive Player of the Year? · C.J. Stroud | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36,353 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DJ Moore win the Offensive Player of the Year? · DJ Moore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,552 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Parker Washington win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Parker Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33,959 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kyler Murray win the Offensive Player of the Year? · Kyler Murray | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,744 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 69 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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