Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Longest Rush on Kalshi
If Jordan Mason records a longest rush of over 12.5 yards in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III: longest rush over 15.5 yards · James Cook III: over 15.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 6,947 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: longest rush over 13.5 yards · Josh Allen: over 13.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,450 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: longest rush over 10.5 yards · Aaron Jones Sr.: over 10.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 532 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Mason: longest rush over 12.5 yards · Jordan Mason: over 12.5 yards | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 73 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.