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Pro Football First Touchdown on Kalshi
If no player scores the first touchdown in New England vs Detroit Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the league governing the game.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 44 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers: 1st Touchdown · Malik Nabers | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 7,143 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| No Touchdown: 1st Touchdown · No Touchdown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,435 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 1st Touchdown · Isaiah Likely | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,178 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs: 1st Touchdown · Stefon Diggs | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 949 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Chig Okonkwo: 1st Touchdown · Chig Okonkwo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 938 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 1st Touchdown · Jayden Daniels | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 916 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 1st Touchdown · Van Jefferson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 587 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 1st Touchdown · Devin Singletary | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 580 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 1st Touchdown · Austin Ekeler | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 578 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Luke McCaffrey: 1st Touchdown · Luke McCaffrey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 472 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: 1st Touchdown · Rachaad White | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 296 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| NY Giants D/ST: 1st Touchdown · NY Giants D/ST | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 177 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Charlie Jones: 1st Touchdown · Charlie Jones | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| WAS Commanders D/ST: 1st Touchdown · WAS Commanders D/ST | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 39 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Gregory Desrosiers: 1st Touchdown · Gregory Desrosiers | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 33 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Ben Sinnott: 1st Touchdown · Ben Sinnott | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Darnell Mooney: 1st Touchdown · Darnell Mooney | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 1st Touchdown · Theo Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| No Touchdown: 1st Touchdown · No Touchdown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| NE Patriots D/ST: 1st Touchdown · NE Patriots D/ST | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Mack Hollins: 1st Touchdown · Mack Hollins | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Lan Larison: 1st Touchdown · Lan Larison | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Kyle Williams: 1st Touchdown · Kyle Williams | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Hunter Henry: 1st Touchdown · Hunter Henry | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Eli Raridon: 1st Touchdown · Eli Raridon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Efton Chism III: 1st Touchdown · Efton Chism III | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Drake Maye: 1st Touchdown · Drake Maye | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| DeMario Douglas: 1st Touchdown · DeMario Douglas | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Corey Kiner: 1st Touchdown · Corey Kiner | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Sione Vaki: 1st Touchdown · Sione Vaki | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Sam LaPorta: 1st Touchdown · Sam LaPorta | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jameson Williams: 1st Touchdown · Jameson Williams | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jared Goff: 1st Touchdown · Jared Goff | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Jahmyr Gibbs: 1st Touchdown · Jahmyr Gibbs | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Isaac TeSlaa: 1st Touchdown · Isaac TeSlaa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| DET Lions D/ST: 1st Touchdown · DET Lions D/ST | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| DeAndre Carter: 1st Touchdown · DeAndre Carter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Brock Wright: 1st Touchdown · Brock Wright | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown: 1st Touchdown · Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:30 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 1st Touchdown · Antonio Williams | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 44 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.