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Receptions Escalator on Kalshi
If Each Yes contract pays per reception by Stefon Diggs in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026. The Yes contracts pay based on this schedule: 0 receptions, $0.0000; 1, $0.0003; 2, $0.0029; 3, $0.0098; 4, $0.0233; 5, $0.0455; 6, $0.0787; 7, $0.1250; 8, $0.1865; 9, $0.2656; 10, $0.3644; 11, $0.4850; 12, $0.6297; 13, $0.8006; 14 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson Receptions Escalator · Justin Jefferson | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 6,205 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| James Cook III Receptions Escalator · James Cook III | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,060 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr. Receptions Escalator · Aaron Jones Sr. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,178 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore Receptions Escalator · DJ Moore | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 993 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid Receptions Escalator · Dalton Kincaid | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 461 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir Receptions Escalator · Khalil Shakir | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 347 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs Receptions Escalator · Stefon Diggs | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malik Nabers Receptions Escalator · Malik Nabers | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely Receptions Escalator · Isaiah Likely | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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