What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NFL Draft Pick on Kalshi

If Austin Simmons is selected as the 1st overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Arch Manning	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	157,129	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Jeremiah Smith	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	88,277	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Drew Mestemaker	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	64,647	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Trinidad Chambliss	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	50,134	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Darian Mensah	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	47,059	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · CJ Carr	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	44,814	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Dante Moore	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	44,425	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · LaNorris Sellers	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	26,781	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Julian Sayin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	24,884	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Jayden Maiava	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	14,266	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Dylan Stewart	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,614	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Sam Leavitt	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,613	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Will Austin Simmons be picked 1st in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Austin Simmons	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,783	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · John Mateer	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,110	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Nico Iamaleava	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,634	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Cam Coleman	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,403	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Leonard Moore	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,979	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Ryan Williams	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,879	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · DJ Lagway	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,865	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Jordan Seaton	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,794	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Quincy Rhodes Jr.	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,463	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Will Lincoln Kienholz be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft? · Lincoln Kienholz	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	701	May 22, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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