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Make the 1st pick in NFL Draft on Kalshi
If Washington is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, the Governing League, ESPN, Fox Sports, AP.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Miami | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 28,613 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,518 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · New York J | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 10,983 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Indianapolis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,463 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Tennessee | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 8,915 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Los Angeles C | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 7,236 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Cleveland | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,094 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carolina make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Carolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,829 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Atlanta | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,752 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New York G make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · New York G | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,666 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tampa Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Tampa Bay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,456 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,723 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Las Vegas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,700 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Philadelphia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,474 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New Orleans make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · New Orleans | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,161 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Dallas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,088 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · San Francisco | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,853 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles R make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Los Angeles R | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,848 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Houston make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Houston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,679 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Pittsburgh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,489 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Seattle make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Seattle | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,742 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Kansas City | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,701 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,035 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New England make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · New England | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 617 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Baltimore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 351 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Buffalo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 216 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Green Bay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 206 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Jacksonville | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 187 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Cincinnati | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 175 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Detroit | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 44 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Denver | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? · Chicago | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14 | May 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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