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Pro Football Biggest Blowout on Kalshi
If there is a game with a point differential of over 51.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 37.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 37.5 point differential | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,393 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 30.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 30.5 point differential | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 94 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 34.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 34.5 point differential | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 54 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 51.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 51.5 point differential | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 25 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 47.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 47.5 point differential | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 20 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 44.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 44.5 point differential | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 17 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be a game with a point differential of over 41.5 points in the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Over 41.5 point differential | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 6 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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