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American Football Conference West Winner on Kalshi
If Las Vegas wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Las Vegas win the Pro Football AFC West Division? · Las Vegas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 537,677 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division? · Kansas City | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 478,317 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division? · Denver | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 432,251 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C win the Pro Football AFC West Division? · Los Angeles C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 173,704 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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