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Will team win conference in regular season on Kalshi
If Washington is the #1 seed in the National Football Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-2027 Pro Football regular season , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Football Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jacksonville be the AFC 1 Seed? · Jacksonville | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 96,321 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco be the NFC 1 Seed? · San Francisco | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 92,824 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be the NFC 1 Seed? · Minnesota | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 68,233 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago be the NFC 1 Seed? · Chicago | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 66,105 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati be the AFC 1 Seed? · Cincinnati | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 61,398 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit be the NFC 1 Seed? · Detroit | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 59,220 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denver be the AFC 1 Seed? · Denver | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 58,976 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seattle be the NFC 1 Seed? · Seattle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 56,980 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo be the AFC 1 Seed? · Buffalo | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 48,254 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh be the AFC 1 Seed? · Pittsburgh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 44,522 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles R be the NFC 1 Seed? · Los Angeles R | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 40,705 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore be the AFC 1 Seed? · Baltimore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,337 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia be the NFC 1 Seed? · Philadelphia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 39,138 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York G be the NFC 1 Seed? · New York G | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 38,915 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Orleans be the NFC 1 Seed? · New Orleans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,157 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City be the AFC 1 Seed? · Kansas City | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 34,849 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas be the NFC 1 Seed? · Dallas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33,207 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New England be the AFC 1 Seed? · New England | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,078 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be the AFC 1 Seed? · Houston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,778 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland be the AFC 1 Seed? · Cleveland | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 26,092 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay be the NFC 1 Seed? · Green Bay | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 23,601 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta be the NFC 1 Seed? · Atlanta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,854 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tampa Bay be the NFC 1 Seed? · Tampa Bay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19,158 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington be the NFC 1 Seed? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,285 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas be the AFC 1 Seed? · Las Vegas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,006 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami be the AFC 1 Seed? · Miami | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,030 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C be the AFC 1 Seed? · Los Angeles C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,781 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carolina be the NFC 1 Seed? · Carolina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,059 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York J be the AFC 1 Seed? · New York J | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,573 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be the NFC 1 Seed? · Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,458 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis be the AFC 1 Seed? · Indianapolis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,997 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be the AFC 1 Seed? · Tennessee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,178 | Jan 18, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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