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Who will be the world's second trillionaire? on Kalshi
If Forbes reports that Warren Buffett has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Forbes.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Zuckerberg be the world's second trillionaire? · Mark Zuckerberg | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 10,316 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Page be the world's second trillionaire? · Larry Page | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 8,278 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeff Bezos be the world's second trillionaire? · Jeff Bezos | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 6,972 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Altman be the world's second trillionaire? · Sam Altman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,830 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jensen Huang be the world's second trillionaire? · Jensen Huang | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,151 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Warren Buffett be the world's second trillionaire? · Warren Buffett | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,736 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bernard Arnault & family be the world's second trillionaire? · Bernard Arnault & family | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,306 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Ballmer be the world's second trillionaire? · Steve Ballmer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,080 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Changpeng Zhao be the world's second trillionaire? · Changpeng Zhao | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,027 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sergey Brin be the world's second trillionaire? · Sergey Brin | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 838 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Dell be the world's second trillionaire? · Michael Dell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 724 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Ellison be the world's second trillionaire? · Larry Ellison | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 543 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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