What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Next House speaker on Kalshi

If Ro Khanna is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, U.S. House of Representatives, The Information, CBS, NBC, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Office of the Speaker of the House, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House? · Hakeem Jeffries	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	572,639	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ro Khanna be the next Speaker of the House? · Ro Khanna	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	68,572	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House? · Jim Jordan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	19,347	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Joe Neguse be the next Speaker of the House? · Joe Neguse	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	18,639	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Katherine Clark be the next Speaker of the House? · Katherine Clark	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,335	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House? · Steve Scalise	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	11,775	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ted Lieu be the next Speaker of the House? · Ted Lieu	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,088	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pete Aguilar be the next Speaker of the House? · Pete Aguilar	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,513	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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