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Next Secretary of the Army on Kalshi
If Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Senate, Department of the Army, the White House, U.S. Department of Defense.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Sean Parnell | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 5,289 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Adam Telle | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 4,240 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick Anderson be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Derrick Anderson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2,457 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Mast be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Brian Mast | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 582 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Obadal be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Michael Obadal | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 213 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marc Andersen be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Marc Andersen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 74 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brent Ingraham be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Brent Ingraham | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 45 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will W. Jordan Gillis be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · W. Jordan Gillis | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 40 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Young III be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030? · Charles Young III | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 10 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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