What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next Senate Judiciary Chair on Kalshi

If Ted Cruz formally holds the position of chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, <company>, ABC, BBC News, Fox News, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, <organization>, agency, The Washington Post, Reuters, CNN, ABC News Australia, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Mike Lee be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028? · Mike Lee	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	3,629	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Sheldon Whitehouse be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028? · Sheldon Whitehouse	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	2,328	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Ted Cruz be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028? · Ted Cruz	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	892	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028? · Amy Klobuchar	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	51	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Josh Hawley be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028? · Josh Hawley	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	50	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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