Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next DNC chair? on Kalshi
If Virginia McGregor formally holds Chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2045, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Deutsche Welle, <company>, ABC, BBC News, Fox News, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, <organization>, agency, The Washington Post, Reuters, CNN, ABC News Australia, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Hogg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · David Hogg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,246 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Artie Blanco be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Artie Blanco | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 628 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shasti Conrad be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Shasti Conrad | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 508 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stacey Abrams be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Stacey Abrams | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 416 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Faiz Shakir be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Faiz Shakir | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 306 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Reyna Walters-Morgan be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Reyna Walters-Morgan | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 230 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Martin O’Malley be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Martin O’Malley | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 215 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Rahm Emanuel | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 197 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Andy Beshear | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 183 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ben Wikler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Ben Wikler | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 129 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ro Khanna be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Ro Khanna | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 103 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pramila Jayapal be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Pramila Jayapal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 99 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quintessa Hathaway be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Quintessa Hathaway | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 84 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia McGregor be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Virginia McGregor | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 52 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · J.B. Pritzker | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 52 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Sherrod Brown | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 44 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Walz be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Tim Walz | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 43 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Tester be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Jon Tester | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 43 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nate Snyder be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Nate Snyder | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 42 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amanda Litman be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Amanda Litman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 41 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Laphonza Butler be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Laphonza Butler | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malcolm Kenyatta be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Malcolm Kenyatta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 26 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Gretchen Whitmer | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 21 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Rae be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Jason Rae | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 16 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Paul be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Jason Paul | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jane Kleeb be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Jane Kleeb | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marianne Williamson be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Marianne Williamson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Skoufis be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · James Skoufis | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaime Harrison be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Jaime Harrison | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Howard Dean be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Howard Dean | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Pete Buttigieg | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Blake be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Michael Blake | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chris Korge be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Chris Korge | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mitch Landrieu be the next Chair of the Democratic National Committee? · Mitch Landrieu | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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