Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Cloudflare quarter kpi on Kalshi
If Cloudflare Inc. reports Above 5800 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5800 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5800 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5700 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5700 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5600 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5600 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5500 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5500 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5400 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5400 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5300 paying customers with over $100k arr in Q1 2027? · Above 5300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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