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Women's College Basketball Game on Kalshi
If Stanford wins the Stanford vs Santa Clara women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 340 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleston wins · Charleston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,151 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| California wins · California | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,079 | Nov 14, 19:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins · Bowling Green | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 21,927 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Presbyterian wins · Presbyterian | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,754 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Charleston wins · Charleston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,646 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Bellarmine wins · Bellarmine | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,063 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| New Haven wins · New Haven | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,941 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| McNeese wins · McNeese | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,355 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Iona wins · Iona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,632 | Nov 12, 22:00 UTC |
| San Jose St. wins · San Jose St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,097 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Detroit Mercy wins · Detroit Mercy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,945 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Lindenwood wins · Lindenwood | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,850 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Youngstown St. wins · Youngstown St. | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 2,220 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins · Georgia | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,197 | Nov 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Cleveland St. wins · Cleveland St. | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,123 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Southern University wins · Southern University | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,003 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,793 | Nov 15, 03:00 UTC |
| North Carolina A&T wins · North Carolina A&T | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,643 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Merrimack wins · Merrimack | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,627 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Saint Peter's wins · Saint Peter's | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,625 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Vanderbilt wins · Vanderbilt | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,578 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins · Michigan St. | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,575 | Nov 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Norfolk St. wins · Norfolk St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,552 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Cal State Bakersfield wins · Cal State Bakersfield | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,524 | Nov 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Marquette wins · Marquette | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,514 | Nov 12, 17:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) wins · Miami (FL) | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,503 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Southeastern Louisiana wins · Southeastern Louisiana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,494 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Texas Southern wins · Texas Southern | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,484 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,484 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| TCU wins · TCU | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,477 | Nov 15, 00:30 UTC |
| Villanova wins · Villanova | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,475 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Northern Iowa wins · Northern Iowa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,457 | Nov 15, 01:30 UTC |
| Iowa wins · Iowa | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,453 | Nov 15, 01:30 UTC |
| Baylor wins · Baylor | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,443 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Rice wins · Rice | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,428 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,323 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| North Carolina Central wins · North Carolina Central | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,318 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Ole Miss wins · Ole Miss | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,240 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma wins · Oklahoma | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,215 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| USC wins · USC | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,207 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 340 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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