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Men's College Basketball Team Total on Kalshi
If Kentucky scores more than 94.5 points in the Kansas vs Kentucky men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
58%
Median YES price across 120 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 58¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.47 | 59.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois over 85.5 points scored · Illinois over 85.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 64 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Kentucky over 94.5 points scored · Kentucky over 94.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 91.5 points scored · Kentucky over 91.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 88.5 points scored · Kentucky over 88.5 points | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 85.5 points scored · Kentucky over 85.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 82.5 points scored · Kentucky over 82.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 79.5 points scored · Kentucky over 79.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 77.5 points scored · Kentucky over 77.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 75.5 points scored · Kentucky over 75.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 73.5 points scored · Kentucky over 73.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 71.5 points scored · Kentucky over 71.5 points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 68.5 points scored · Kentucky over 68.5 points | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 65.5 points scored · Kentucky over 65.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 62.5 points scored · Kentucky over 62.5 points | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 59.5 points scored · Kentucky over 59.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kentucky over 56.5 points scored · Kentucky over 56.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 96.5 points scored · Kansas over 96.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 93.5 points scored · Kansas over 93.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 90.5 points scored · Kansas over 90.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 87.5 points scored · Kansas over 87.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 84.5 points scored · Kansas over 84.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 82.5 points scored · Kansas over 82.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 80.5 points scored · Kansas over 80.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 78.5 points scored · Kansas over 78.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 76.5 points scored · Kansas over 76.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 73.5 points scored · Kansas over 73.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 70.5 points scored · Kansas over 70.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 67.5 points scored · Kansas over 67.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 64.5 points scored · Kansas over 64.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 61.5 points scored · Kansas over 61.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Kansas over 99.5 points scored · Kansas over 99.5 points | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 88.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 88.5 points | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 85.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 85.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 82.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 82.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 79.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 79.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 76.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 76.5 points | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 73.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 73.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 71.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 71.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 69.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 69.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech over 67.5 points scored · Texas Tech over 67.5 points | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 120 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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