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Men's College Basketball AP Poll on Kalshi
If Florida is ranked #1 on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027) for the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AP College Basketball Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 1892 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 7 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 14, 2026)? · Arkansas | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 361 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 23, 2026)? · Arkansas | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 344 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 30, 2026)? · Illinois | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 308 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Arkansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 270 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #2 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Arkansas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 252 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be the #2 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Alabama | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 250 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC be the #2 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · USC | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 250 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be the #2 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Arizona | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 250 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 30, 2026)? · Arkansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 249 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Arkansas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 232 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 21, 2026)? · Arkansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 203 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 30, 2026)? · Duke | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 137 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 21, 2026)? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 119 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 7 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 14, 2026)? · Illinois | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 107 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UConn be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 30, 2026)? · UConn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 101 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 23, 2026)? · Duke | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 91 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Duke | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 60 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Duke | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 60 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 4 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 23, 2026)? · Illinois | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 51 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Duke be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 8 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 21, 2026)? · Duke | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 47 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 5 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 30, 2026)? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 24 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 7 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 14, 2026)? · Kansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 23 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn be the #2 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Auburn | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 13 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Louisville | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Michigan St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Louisville | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Kansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Iowa St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Illinois | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Houston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UConn be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · UConn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Arizona | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Michigan St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Kansas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Iowa St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Illinois be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Illinois | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Houston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UConn be the #1 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · UConn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10 | Jan 14, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 1892 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.