What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 12¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 12%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

College Football Winning Margin on Kalshi

If UCLA has a positive point differential of Between 7 to 14 points against Illinois in the Full game (including overtime) of the Illinois vs UCLA college football game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

12%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

23% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.08	12.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
UCLA wins by 7 to 14 points · UCLA wins by 7-14 points	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
UCLA wins by 25 or more points · UCLA wins by 25+ points	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
UCLA wins by 1 to 6 points · UCLA wins by 1-6 points	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
UCLA wins by 15 to 24 points · UCLA wins by 15-24 points	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
Illinois wins by 7 or more points · Illinois wins by 7+ points	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
Illinois wins by 1 to 6 points · Illinois wins by 1-6 points	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	Nov 16, 02:00 UTC
Pittsburgh wins by 7 to 14 points · Pittsburgh wins by 7-14 points	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC
Pittsburgh wins by 1 to 6 points · Pittsburgh wins by 1-6 points	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC
Pittsburgh wins by 15 or more points · Pittsburgh wins by 15+ points	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC
Florida St. wins by 7 to 14 points · Florida St. wins by 7-14 points	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC
Florida St. wins by 1 to 6 points · Florida St. wins by 1-6 points	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC
Florida St. wins by 15 or more points · Florida St. wins by 15+ points	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	Nov 16, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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