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College Football Playoff Top Seed on Kalshi
If UCLA is selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 52 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Notre Dame be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Notre Dame | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 13,125 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Utah | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 6,141 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Miami (FL) | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 3,918 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Georgia | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 3,199 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas Tech | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,409 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Ohio St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,320 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Indiana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,621 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,566 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will LSU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · LSU | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,264 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Oregon | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,253 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Alabama | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,075 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · BYU | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 810 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · USC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 453 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Auburn | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 387 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Oklahoma | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 378 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Penn St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 350 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Michigan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 213 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Florida | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 140 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Kentucky | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 120 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Ole Miss | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 118 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Texas A&M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 113 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Arizona St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 60 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Oklahoma St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 50 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Tennessee | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 37 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Louisville | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will California be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · California | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Washington | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · UCLA | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wake Forest be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Wake Forest | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Virginia Tech | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Vanderbilt | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Virginia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Texas be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · North Texas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulane be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Tulane | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will TCU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · TCU | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · SMU | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · South Carolina | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Pittsburgh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina St. be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · North Carolina St. | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (OH) be selected as a top 4 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff? · Miami (OH) | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 52 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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