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College Football Playoff Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Liberty is one of the teams to qualify for the College Football Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 61 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LSU qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · LSU | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,002,539 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · South Carolina | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 210,788 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Notre Dame | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 160,230 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Ohio St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 152,265 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Michigan | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 141,085 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Ole Miss | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 133,601 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 123,795 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Alabama | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 122,218 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Texas | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 119,773 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Iowa | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 119,399 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Penn St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 118,768 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · USC | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 114,766 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season? · UCLA | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 107,822 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Utah | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 96,987 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Florida | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 86,589 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Oklahoma St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 83,931 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Texas Tech | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 77,122 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Oregon | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 67,994 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · BYU | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 59,691 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Indiana | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 51,764 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · James Madison | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 49,894 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Miami (FL) | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 46,719 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon St. qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season? · Oregon St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 46,117 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Texas A&M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 45,039 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Georgia | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 40,429 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Virginia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,274 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Virginia Tech | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 36,013 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Kentucky | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 33,590 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Tennessee | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 33,327 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · SMU | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 32,905 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin qualify for the College Football Playoff in the 2026-27 season? · Wisconsin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 31,064 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Auburn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 28,399 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Missouri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 25,104 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Louisville | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 23,579 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Houston | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 22,349 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Arizona | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 22,006 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Clemson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 19,410 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will California qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · California | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,171 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Florida St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,995 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh qualify for the College Football Playoffs? · Pittsburgh | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,720 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 61 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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