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College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Wyoming qualifies for the 2026 College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Dakota St. qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · North Dakota St. | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 5,137 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Mexico qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · New Mexico | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 3,962 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Air Force qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · Air Force | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,713 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UNLV qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · UNLV | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,320 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hawai'i qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · Hawai'i | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,094 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Jose St. qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · San Jose St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 296 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nevada qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · Nevada | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 236 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wyoming qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · Wyoming | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 172 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UTEP qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · UTEP | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 146 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Northern Illinois qualify for the College Football Mountain West Conference Championship Game? · Northern Illinois | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 145 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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