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College Football Finalist on Kalshi
If UCLA is one of the teams to reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · LSU | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 578,177 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Notre Dame | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 72,038 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Miami (FL) | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 68,294 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Ohio St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 67,249 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Texas | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 54,812 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Georgia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 49,084 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Alabama | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 37,987 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Oregon | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 28,600 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Texas Tech | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,946 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Oklahoma | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,015 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USC reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · USC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 17,378 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · BYU | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 14,159 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Indiana | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 13,910 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Penn St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 13,187 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ole Miss reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Ole Miss | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 12,896 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Florida | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,677 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Texas A&M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,523 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Utah | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 8,656 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Oklahoma St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,090 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Michigan | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,010 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Kentucky | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 6,177 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Virginia Tech | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,683 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Iowa | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,028 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Missouri | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,949 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SMU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · SMU | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,839 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Madison reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · James Madison | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,716 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · South Carolina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,565 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will California reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · California | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,208 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Virginia | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,959 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Auburn | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,952 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Tennessee | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,814 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Kansas St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,682 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,316 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clemson reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Clemson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,261 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Playoff National Championship in the 2026-27 season? · UCLA | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,241 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Houston | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,210 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Arizona | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,975 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Arkansas | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,570 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Baylor | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 774 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game? · Arizona St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 750 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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