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College Football Conference USA Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Western Kentucky qualifies for the 2026 College Football Conference USA Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liberty qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Liberty | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 26,935 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville St. qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Jacksonville St. | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,215 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Delaware qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Delaware | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,131 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida International qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Florida International | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 865 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Houston qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Sam Houston | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 435 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kennesaw St. qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Kennesaw St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 376 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Western Kentucky qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Western Kentucky | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 310 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Mexico St. qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · New Mexico St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 297 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri St. qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Missouri St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 159 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Middle Tennessee qualify for the College Football Conference USA Championship Game? · Middle Tennessee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 53 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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