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College Football Conference Championship Matchup on Kalshi
If Utah St. vs Washington St. is confirmed to be the matchup in the 2026 Pac-12 College Football Conference Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 865 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Alabama vs Georgia? · Alabama vs Georgia | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 9,295 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Pac-12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Boise St. vs Texas St.? · Boise St. vs Texas St. | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,265 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Pac-12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Boise St. vs Oregon St.? · Boise St. vs Oregon St. | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,115 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Louisville vs Miami (FL)? · Louisville vs Miami (FL) | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,667 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Georgia vs Texas? · Georgia vs Texas | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,407 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Miami (FL) vs SMU? · Miami (FL) vs SMU | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 3,387 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Georgia vs Kentucky? · Georgia vs Kentucky | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,937 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Georgia vs LSU? · Georgia vs LSU | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,232 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Indiana vs UCLA? · Indiana vs UCLA | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 2,016 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Georgia vs Tennessee? · Georgia vs Tennessee | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,609 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: BYU vs Texas Tech? · BYU vs Texas Tech | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,406 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Indiana vs Ohio St.? · Indiana vs Ohio St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,346 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Ohio St. vs UCLA? · Ohio St. vs UCLA | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,063 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Florida vs Georgia? · Florida vs Georgia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,018 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Miami (FL) vs Wake Forest? · Miami (FL) vs Wake Forest | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 946 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Alabama vs Ole Miss? · Alabama vs Ole Miss | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 894 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Mountain West College Football Conference Championship matchup: New Mexico vs North Dakota St.? · New Mexico vs North Dakota St. | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 885 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 American Athletic Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Memphis vs North Texas? · Memphis vs North Texas | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 841 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Pac-12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Boise St. vs San Diego St.? · Boise St. vs San Diego St. | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 800 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Texas Tech vs Utah? · Texas Tech vs Utah | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 794 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Clemson vs Miami (FL)? · Clemson vs Miami (FL) | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 731 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Alabama vs Oklahoma? · Alabama vs Oklahoma | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 601 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Georgia vs Ole Miss? · Georgia vs Ole Miss | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 537 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Sun Belt College Football Conference Championship matchup: Old Dominion vs Louisiana-Monroe? · Old Dominion vs Louisiana-Monroe | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 504 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Oklahoma St. vs Utah? · Oklahoma St. vs Utah | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 464 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Miami (FL) vs Virginia? · Miami (FL) vs Virginia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 448 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Alabama vs Auburn? · Alabama vs Auburn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 409 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: LSU vs Texas? · LSU vs Texas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 335 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 American Athletic Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Memphis vs UTSA? · Memphis vs UTSA | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 307 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech? · Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 303 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: BYU vs Oklahoma St.? · BYU vs Oklahoma St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 299 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Baylor vs Oklahoma St.? · Baylor vs Oklahoma St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 277 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Ohio St. vs Penn St.? · Ohio St. vs Penn St. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 271 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Auburn vs Georgia? · Auburn vs Georgia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 263 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Iowa vs Ohio St.? · Iowa vs Ohio St. | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 260 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southeastern Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Alabama vs Texas? · Alabama vs Texas | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 248 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Illinois vs Iowa? · Illinois vs Iowa | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 235 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big 12 College Football Conference Championship matchup: Arizona vs Texas Tech? · Arizona vs Texas Tech | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 235 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Big Ten College Football Conference Championship matchup: Indiana vs Nebraska? · Indiana vs Nebraska | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 235 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Atlantic Coast Conference College Football Conference Championship matchup: Duke vs Miami (FL)? · Duke vs Miami (FL) | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 235 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 865 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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