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College Football Conference Leave on Kalshi
If the LSU College Football team leaves the SEC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 68 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will LSU leave the SEC before Jan 1, 2027? · LSU | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,138 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Florida St. | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 493 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miami (FL) leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Miami (FL) | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 94 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Texas | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 67 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boston College leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Boston College | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 48 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wisconsin leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Wisconsin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will West Virginia leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · West Virginia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wake Forest leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Wake Forest | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia Tech leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Virginia Tech | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Vanderbilt leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Vanderbilt | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virginia leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Virginia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Utah leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Utah | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USC leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · USC | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · North Carolina | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kentucky leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Kentucky | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Georgia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UCLA leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · UCLA | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UCF leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · UCF | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas A&M leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Texas A&M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Texas Tech | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Tennessee | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will TCU leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · TCU | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Syracuse leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Syracuse | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stanford leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Stanford | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SMU leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · SMU | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Carolina leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · South Carolina | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rutgers leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Rutgers | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Purdue leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Purdue | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Penn St. leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Penn St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · Pittsburgh | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ohio St. leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Ohio St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oregon leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Oregon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma St. leave the Big 12 before Jul 1, 2027? · Oklahoma St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Oklahoma | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Northwestern leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Northwestern | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nebraska leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Nebraska | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will North Carolina St. leave the ACC before Jul 1, 2027? · North Carolina St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Michigan St. leave the Big Ten before Jul 1, 2027? · Michigan St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mississippi St. leave the SEC before Jul 1, 2027? · Mississippi St. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 68 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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